Six weeks out from Tuesday, November 6th, the latest polling should make the Republican Party very, very queasy.
Congressional Republicans are facing a mid-term election wipeout fueled by voter resistance to President Donald Trump, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
The generic Congressional ballot pitting Democratic against Republican candidates now stands at 52% -40%. The twelve point differential, if it holds, would suggest that Democrats not only have the potential to flip the House, but the Senate as well.
The unequivocal reason is Donald Trump. Like an anchor affixed to their necks, Trump is dragging Republicans in Congress swiftly down to the bottom of the ocean, and there seems to be nothing they can do about it.
Democrats have generated wide advantages among key swing groups within the electorate. The poll shows them leading by 31 percentage points among independents, 33 points among moderates and 12 points among white women.
Perhaps the best indicator of voter dissatisfaction is the percentage differential in Republican-held districts that Trump typically won by high double digit margins. The margin by which Republicans lead Democrats in those Districts is now down to a single percentage point, collectively. For Republicans, that is the functional equivalent of staring into the abyss, from the outermost part of the cliff’s edge.
The Kavanaugh hearings aren’t doing Trump or the Republicans any favors. By nominating an accused attempted rapist to the Supreme Court, Trump has not only squandered whatever standing he had left among most women, he has also dominated the news cycle for over a week. Next week promises more of the same. Republicans have virtually no time left to gain any traction, even if they had any issues they could run on, which they don’t.
"Donald Trump's presidency has been about one thing: Donald Trump," said Peter Hart, McInturff's Democratic counterpart on the survey. "He makes himself bigger than the economy. In 2018, he has become Typhoid Trump, infecting most GOP candidates he supports."
While the polling is (historically) expected to narrow somewhat by November 6, the remarkable consistency of voter antipathy towards Trump suggests that voters at this point have made up their mind about whether and how they will vote. But there are some weak points for Democrats in the numbers as well. The poll is of registered (as opposed to likely) voters. Further, Latinos and Hispanics are showing unusually low interest in this election, for reasons that are not clear. And those under 35 years of age appear to be demonstrating once again that they may not turn out in great numbers, despite highly publicized drives to register young voters.
A good organization working to motivate and mobilize young Democratic voters to turn out in November is here.
And here.